March
18, 2004 |
Office
of Strategic Information Services
Assembly Republican Caucus
KEVIN McCARTHY, LEADER
RUSS BOGH, CAUCUS CHAIR |
Vol 4 Issue 38
|
CALIFORNIA 2004,
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
This Office of Strategic Information
Services report analyzes some of the key factors shaping the political
landscape. The landscape is favorable for Republicans. The most salient
points are:
Registration
Trends
- Registration trends are favorable
for Republicans. The registration gap between the parties stands at
7.65%, the closest since the early 1930s.
- Over the past three years, Republicans
gained voter registration in 21 of 40 Senate Districts and in 39 of
80 Assembly Districts.
- Over the past three years, Democrats
have lost registration in all 40 Senate Districts and in 78 of 80 Assembly
Districts.
Public Opinion
Trends
- Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger is
very popular. His job approval rating stands at 65% approve and 19%
disapprove.
- George W. Bush's job approval stands
at 47% approve and 51% disapprove.
- In an early match-up, Kerry leads
Bush 53% to 40% - nearly identical to Gore's 53% to 41% advantage over
Bush at a similar juncture in 2000.
- Bush has improved his numbers with
Latinos. In 2000, he received 23% of their vote. Today, he gets 35%
of their vote. This is a chief reason his overall support among Democrats
rose from 8% to 11%.
Local Ballot
Proposition Trends
- Despite the passage of 80% of local
school bond measures (53 of 66), fiscal conservatism was still alive
and kicking on other tax and spending issues.
- Holding the line against special
interests, local voters killed 14 of 24 emergency services tax measures;
12 of 15 library tax measures; five of eight sales tax measures; and
13 of 23 school tax measures.
"Occasionally - once every decade
or two - powerful California political currents merge to create whirlpool
of intersecting conflicts that force voters to make some truly fundamental
decisions about the society in which they live. This year may be one of
those events." - Dan Walters - Sacramento Bee March 10, 2004
California is in the midst of a citizen
revolution in its politics and policies. The accumulated problems of the
past several decades are finally prompting the state's citizens to take
matters into their own hands. The first manifestation of this was last
October 's recall of Governor Gray Davis and the recent passage of Propositions
57 & 58. This November, voters will have even more chances to re-order
state priorities.
CALIFORNIA 2004, SIS REPORT OVERVIEW
This Office of Strategic Information
Services report is a strategic survey of California's political landscape.
It summarizes the main trends in voter registration, public opinion and
primary election results.
1.
Registration Trends
The big story in voter registration
is that the registration gap between Republicans and Democrats has closed
to 7.65%. This is the smallest margin since the early 1930s. It is a result
of Republican registration stabilizing at slightly over 35%, and Democrat
registration dropping to barely 43%.
Statewide
Voter Registration
|
% |
Raw # |
Democrat |
43.20% |
6,518,631 |
Republican |
35.55% |
5,364,832 |
Decline-to-State |
16.43% |
2,480,039 |
Other |
4.82% |
727,658 |
Total |
|
15,091,160 |
State Senate
At the Senate District level, Republicans
made registration gains in 21 of 40 Districts between 2001 and 2004. The
biggest GOP registration gains were occurred in:
- SD 16 (Florez-D) +4.2%
- SD 12 (Denham-R) +3.4%
- SD 32 (Dunn-D) +2.6%
- SD 40 (Ducheny-D) +2.2%
- SD 5 (Machado-D) +2.0%
Democrats lost voter registration in
every State Senate District.
State Assembly
On the Assembly District level, Republican
registration increased in 39 of 80 Assembly Districts between 2001 and
2004. The biggest GOP registration gains were made in:
- AD 80 (Garcia-R) +5.3%
- AD 62 (Open/Longville-D) +3.8%
- AD 31 (Open/Reyes-D) +3.2%
- AD 63 (Open/Dutton-R) +2.9%
- AD 30 (Parra-D) +2.0%
Over the same time period, Democrats
lost voter registration in 78 of 80 Assembly District. Their biggest 2001-04
losses occurred in:
- AD 62 (Open/Longville-D) -5.3%
- AD 63 (Open/Dutton-R) -3.7%
- AD 80 (Garcia-R) -3.3%
- AD 46 (Nunez-D) -3.1%
- AD 4 (Leslie-R) -3.0%
These registration trends have led
to Republican registration gains in critical Assembly Districts. While
only three Democrat-held Assembly Districts had Republican registration
of 36-40% in 2003, there are now five AD's with 36%-40% GOP registration.
Republican registration has increased
in the following Assembly Districts since Summer 2003.
- AD 17's GOP registration increased
by 1.5%.
- AD 30's GOP registration increased
by 1.5%.
- AD 31's GOP registration increased
by 1.5%.
- AD 54's GOP registration increased
by 1.0%.
- AD 80's GOP registration increased
by 2.0%.
2. The State of the Presidential Race
President George W. Bush's statewide
job approval is slightly below his national numbers. His statewide job
approval stands at 47% approve and 51% disapprove. Nationally, his job
approval is 50% approve to 46% disapprove.
Nationally, the Presidential campaign
has settled into a classic red versus blue states contest. Michael Barone,
US News and Fox News political analyst, noted how current state polls
closely mirror the 2000 election results. For example,
State |
Current Poll |
2000 Result |
|
Kerry |
Bush |
Gore |
Bush |
Michigan |
51% |
45% |
51% |
45% |
Pennsylvania |
50% |
46% |
51% |
46% |
Nevada |
49% |
48% |
50% |
46% |
The same holds true for California.
In the recent LA Times poll, Bush trails Kerry by a 53% to 40% margin.
This is nearly identical to how he fared against Al Gore in November 2000
- 53% to 41%. Yet, this finding does not tell the entire story.
When George W. Bush's 2000 results
are compared to his current standing vis-a-vis John Kerry, several observations
spring immediately to mind.
Bush has improved his numbers with
Latinos. In 2000, he received 23% of their vote. Today, he gets 35% of
their vote. This is a chief reason his overall support among Democrats
rose from 8% to 11%.
Bush's main weakness is that Republicans
and Conservatives have yet to rally to his cause. He is running 11% behind
his 2000 showing with Republicans and 5% behind with Conservatives.
If George W. Bush solidifies his base
to 2000 levels and keeps his vote with Latinos, the election becomes much
closer very quickly. His vote would rise from 41% to 45% - within striking
distance of winning California.
3. Primary Recap
This section is devoted to a brief
analysis of the March 2nd primary.
A. Voter Turnout
- 5,700,000 Californians cast ballots
on March 2nd. This number will increase as late absentees and provisional
ballots are counted.
- The voter turnout, based on preliminary
Secretary of State data, was 38%. This percentage will grow as late
absentees and provisional ballots are counted.
- The voter turnout by party was:
Voter Turnout by
Party |
|
Registration |
Voted |
T/O% |
Total |
15,091,160 |
5,666,117 |
37.5% |
Democrat |
6,518,031 |
2,736,108 |
42.0% |
GOP |
5,364,832 |
2,002,206 |
37.3% |
Independent |
3,208,297 |
927,803 |
28.9% |

- This turnout mix created an electorate
that was 49% Democrat, 34% Republican, and 17% Independent.
- Voter turnout will rise in the general
election. It can be expected that an additional 3-5 million voters will
cast ballots. The exact turnout will depend on how close the Presidential
election is and whether any statewide ballot initiatives provoke massive
public interest.
B. Assembly
District Impact
Despite an electorate that skewed
in favor of the Democrats by a 49% to 34% margin, Republican candidates
out-polled or finished within a few votes of Democrat candidates in
numerous districts. They include:
- Guy Houston, who out-polled Democrat
Elaine Shaw in AD 15 by a 7,943-vote margin (45,805-37,862).
- Nicole Parra, who barely out-polled
Republican Dean Gardner by a slim 322-vote margin (16,838-16,516), only
56 more votes than the 266-vote margin she defeated Gardner by in 2002.
- Cumulative GOP vote in AD 44 was
25,714 votes, compared to 29,561 votes for uncontested Democrat incumbent
Carol Liu.
- Betty Karnette, who has represented
AD 54's areas for most of the past decade, out-polled Steve Kuykendall,
who has been out of elective office for three years, by only 1,501 votes.
C. U.S.
Senate Primary
- Bill Jones won the Republican U.S.
Senate Primary with 44% of the vote. Rosario Marin finished in second
place with 20% of the vote, Howard Kaloogian finished third with 11%
and Toni Casey finished fourth with 7%.
- The undecided vote broke heavily
for Marin. She won 50% of late-deciding GOP primary voters, improving
her standing from 8% to 20%.
BILL
JONES - BEST & WORST PERFORMANCE BY SUB-GROUP |
|
Top Five |
Bottom Five |
|
Group |
Vote % |
Group |
Vote % |
Statewide |
Northern CA |
56.0% |
LA County |
35.0% |
44.0% |
Bay Area |
51.0% |
So. CA |
38.0% |
|
65 Plus |
52.0% |
$20-39,999 |
39.0% |
|
Moderates |
48.0% |
Women |
41.0% |
|
Less than college |
47.0% |
18-29 Olds |
41.0% |
Source:
LA Times Exit Poll |
D. Proposition
55 - School Bond
The vote for and against Proposition
55 (School Bonds) broke down along classic Conservative versus Liberal
lines. Groups generally aligned with the liberal side of state politics
- Liberals, Democrats, Blacks and Latinos, drove the "Yes" vote.
On the other hand, opposition came from groups associated with the Conservative
side, Republicans, Conservatives and Southern California.
PROPOSITION 55
- SCHOOL BONDS - BEST & WORST SUB-GROUPS |
|
Top Five |
Bottom Five |
Statewide |
Group |
Vote % |
Group |
Vote % |
51.0% |
Blacks |
68% |
GOP |
66% |
|
Latinos |
65% |
Conservatives |
66% |
|
Liberals |
65% |
Southern CA |
56% |
|
18-29 Old |
65% |
Non-Catholic Christians |
54% |
|
Democrats |
63% |
65 & Older |
54% |
Source:
LA Times Exit Poll |
F. Propositions
57 & 58
Proposition 57 (Economic Recovery Bonds)
and Proposition 58 (Balanced Budget) passed by overwhelming margins. Republicans
and Conservatives drove the "Yes" vote on both measures. This
is not surprising in regards to Proposition 58 (Balanced Budget), since
it reflects core GOP and Conservative beliefs. However, 75% of Republicans
and 71% of Conservatives supported Proposition 57, which is surprising.
These groups tend to oppose bond measures - as shown by their strong opposition
(66% to 34%) to Proposition 55 (School Bond).
How can this be explained? It was the
"Schwarzenegger Factor" at work. Arnold persuaded these groups
of the correctness of supporting Propositions 57 and 58. This trend can
be seen among voters who decided in the final week of the election - they
broke strongly for both measures. Here, the "Schwarzenegger Factor"
defied the conventional wisdom that late-deciders break toward the "No"
side on ballot measures.
PROPOSITION 57
- ECONOMIC RECOVERY BONDS - BEST & WORST SUB-GROUPS |
|
Top Five |
Bottom Five |
Statewide |
Group |
Vote % |
Group |
Vote % |
63.0% |
Republicans |
75.0% |
Gays/Lesbians |
46.0% |
|
Conservatives |
71.0% |
Liberals |
55.0% |
|
Southern CA |
69.0% |
Bay Area |
56.0% |
|
Non-Catholic Christians |
69.0% |
Democrats |
57.0% |
|
Moderates |
65.0% |
Blacks |
58.0% |
Source: LA Times Exit
Poll |
PROPOSITION 58
- BALANCED BUDGET - BEST & WORST SUB-GROUPS |
|
Top five |
Bottom Five |
Statewide |
Group |
Vote % |
Group |
Vote % |
71.0% |
Republicans |
79.0% |
Gays/Lesbians |
59.0% |
|
Conservatives |
76.0% |
Blacks |
58.0% |
|
Non-Catholic Christians |
74.0% |
Less than $20,000 |
64.0% |
|
Moderate |
73.0% |
30-44 Old |
65.0% |
|
Whites |
72.0% |
Democrats |
65.0% |
Source:
LA Times Exit Poll |
F. Local Ballot
Propositions
- California voters were in a disgruntled
mood. Evidence of this anger was twofold.
- Firstly, on tax and spending issues,
voters killed 14 out of 24 fire/police/emergency services tax measures;
12 out of 15 library tax measures; five out of eight sales tax measures;
and 13 out of 23 school tax measures.
- Interestingly, though, voter anger
did not carry over when it came to the 66 local school bond measures.
Voters passed 53 of them, accounting for almost $8 billion worth of
long-term fiscal burden, including Los Angeles Unified School District's
$3.87 billion school bond (Measure R).
- Secondly, on growth and land use
measures, voters resoundingly rejected 12 out of 16 measures, including
the anti-"Box Box" measure in Contra Costa County (Measure
"L"), the "San Benito County Growth Control Initiative"
(Measure G) and San Diego County's "Rural Lands Initiative"
(Measure A).
MAJOR TAX &
SPENDING ISSUE MEASURES |
Sub-Issue |
Total Measures |
Number Passed |
Number Failed |
Fire/Police/Emergency Services
Special Property Tax Measures |
24 |
10 |
14 |
Library Tax Measures |
15 |
3 |
12 |
Local Bond Measures |
4 |
3 |
1 |
Sales Tax Measures |
8 |
3 |
5 |
School Tax Measures |
23 |
10 |
13 |
Other Special Parcel Tax Measures |
5 |
2 |
3 |
Transportation Tax |
1 |
1 |
0 |
Transient Occupancy Tax Measures |
10 |
8 |
2 |
Utility User Tax Measures |
3 |
2 |
1 |
Other Tax & Spending Measures |
5 |
4 |
1 |
Total |
98 |
46 |
52 |
SCHOOL BOND MEASURES |
Total Measures |
Number Passed |
Number Failed |
66 |
53 |
13 |
GROWTH & LAND
USE MEASURES |
Total Measures |
Number Passed |
Number Failed |
18 |
6 |
12 |
OTHER MAJOR LOCAL
ISSUE MEASURES |
Sub-Issue |
Total Measures |
Number Passed |
Number Failed |
Annexation Issues |
2 |
1 |
1 |
Local Officials - Appointment
Process |
2 |
2 |
0 |
Local Elections Process Issues |
15 |
11 |
4 |
Local Fire & Police Issues |
4 |
3 |
1 |
Local Fireworks Regulations |
2 |
1 |
1 |
Miscellaneous Issues |
13 |
13 |
0 |
Total |
38 |
31 |
7 |
5. The November Landscape
A. The "Arnold"
Factor
Arnold Schwarzenegger is very popular
with the public. His job approval rating stands at 65% approve and 19%
disapprove. He showed his ability to mobilize the public behind his agenda
with the overwhelming vote for Propositions 57 and 58.
What Arnold is able to do is use his
celebrity status to focus public attention on one or two issues and, thereby,
making those issues the dividing line between the parties. Which issues
he chooses will help determine what issues the public focuses on.
B. November Ballot Propositions
California voters will potentially
have numerous statewide ballot propositions to choose from in their desire
to shake up the public policy - from worker's compensation to establishing
a new election system. They include the following listed below:
MEASURES QUALIFYING
FOR THE NOVEMBER 4, 2004 GENERAL ELECTION BALLOT |
Measure # |
Author |
Session |
Assembly Vote |
Senate Vote |
Subject |
SB 1856 |
Costa |
2001-02 |
59-16, 8/29/02 |
27-6, 8/30/02 |
High Speed Rail Bonds |
SCA 1 |
Burton |
2003-04 |
78-0, 1/12/04 |
34-0, 6/30/03 |
Expanded Public Access
to Government Information |
SB 2 |
Burton |
2003-04 |
46-32, 9/12/03 |
25-15, 9/12/03 |
Small Businesses:
Health Care Mandate (Referendum) |
CONSTITUTIONAL
AMENDMENT & STATUTE INITIATIVES IN CIRCULATION - 598,105 SIGNATURES |
SOS Ref. # |
Circulation Deadline |
Subject |
1009 |
4/12/04 |
Abortions for Minors:
Parental Notice |
1010 |
4/12/04 |
Three Percent Telephone
Use Surcharge: Emergency & Medical Services Funding |
1018 |
5/17/04 |
Abortions for Minors:
Parental Notification or Judicial Waiver |
1021 |
5/28/04 |
Stem Cell Research:
Funding, Bonds |
1022 |
6/1/04 |
Two-Thirds Legislative
Vote & Voter Approval Requirement: Shifting Local Sales &
Property Taxes to the State (CSAC, League of Cities) |
1024 |
6/10/04 |
K-12 & Voluntary
Universal Pre-School Funding, Tax Hike on Real Property and Income-Producing
Commercial Residential Property |
1027 |
6/24/04 |
Tribal Gaming Compact
Renegotiation, Non-Tribal (Card Rooms, Horse Race Tracks) Gaming Expansion
("Gaming Revenue Act of 2004", Sacramento Sheriff Lou Blanas,
LA County Sheriff Lee Baca) |
1046 |
8/9/04 |
"The Indian Gaming
Fair Share Revenue Act of 2004" |
CONSTITUTIONAL
AMENDMENT INITIATIVES IN CIRCULATION - 598,105 SIGNATURES REQUIRED |
SOS Ref. # |
Circulation Deadline |
Subject |
1004 |
3/4/04 |
Preferential Voting,
Terms of Office, Redistricting |
1014 |
4/29/04 |
Government Benefits:
Driver's License Eligibility, Immigration Status & Identity Verification |
1017 |
5/17/04 |
Optional, Private,
Alternative K-12 School System |
1020 |
5/24/04 |
Authorized or Kings
Bible: Grade 1-12 Textbook Use |
1023 |
6/1/04 |
Redistricting Reform
(Ted Costa) |
1026 |
6/18/04 |
Right-to-Bear Firearms
(" The Self-Defense Initiative") |
1031 |
7/5/04 |
"Local Taxpayers
& Public Safety Protection Act" |
1032 |
7/5/04 |
Redistricting Changes:
Criteria/Methods, State Demographer Position: Creation, San Francisco
Bay Area Regional Authority Board: Creation |
1033 |
7/12/04 |
Unicameral Legislature |
1034 |
7/12/04 |
Cities of Barstow
and Oakland: Legalized Casino-Type Gambling, Pilot Basis |
1036 |
7/19/04 |
Minor Girls, Abortions:
Waiting Notice/Parental Notification |
1047 |
8/13/04 |
"The California
Budget Deficit Prevention Act" (John Campbell, Jon Coupal, Larry
McCarthy) |
1048 |
8/13/04 |
"Tribal Fair
Share Act of 2004" |
STATUTORY INITIATIVES
IN CIRCULATION - 373,816 SIGNATURES REQUIRED |
SOS Ref. # |
Circulation Deadline |
Subject |
1006 |
3/4/04 |
State Agency Internet
Website Posting: State Revenue & Expenditure Information |
1011 |
4/16/04 |
Campaign Finance,
Oil Severance Tax (Arianna Huffington) |
1012 |
4/19/04 |
Sexual Offender Punishment
& "Megan's Law" (Jay La Suer, Dennis Hollingsworth) |
1015 |
5/13/04 |
Limitations on "Three
Strikes" |
1016 |
5/13/04 |
Unfair Competition
Lawsuit Reforms (Allan Zaremberg, John Sullivan) |
1019 |
5/21/04 |
Allow cities/counties
to increase traffic violation fines in school zones. |
1025 |
6/18/04 |
Workers' Compensation
Reform |
1028 |
6/28/04 |
STRS Retirement: Members
Retiring At Age 55 |
1029 |
7/2/04 |
"DNA Fingerprint,
Unsolved Crime & Innocence Protection Act" |
1030 |
7/5/04 |
Auto Sales: Right
to Cancel Purchase, Seller Disclosures ("Car Buyer's Bill of
Rights Act") |
1035 |
7/12/04 |
Legislators: Denial
of Salary for Being Present But Failing to Vote, 24-Hour Online Campaign
Disclosure Requirement ("The Politician Reform Act of 2004" |
1037 |
7/23/04 |
Identity Theft Protection:
"California Privacy Protection Act" (Version #1) |
1038 |
7/23/04 |
Identity Theft Protection:
"California Privacy Protection Act" (Version #2) |
1039 |
7/23/04 |
Identity Theft Protection:
"California Privacy Protection Act" (Version #3) |
1040 |
7/23/04 |
Identity Theft Protection:
"California Privacy Protection Act" (Version #4) |
1041 |
7/23/04 |
Identity Theft Protection:
"California Privacy Protection Act" (Version #5) |
1042 |
7/23/04 |
Identity Theft Protection:
"California Privacy Protection Act" (Version #6) |
1043 |
7/23/04 |
Identity Theft Protection:
"California Privacy Protection Act" (Version #7) |
1044 |
7/26/04 |
Workers' Compensation
Reform: "California Jobs Protection Act" (Ted Costa) |
INITIATIVES PENDING
SIGNATURE VERIFICATION |
SOS Ref. # |
Subject |
1003 |
Children's Hospital
Projects: Bonds |
1005 |
Open Primary (Richard
Riordan, Steve Westly, Garry South) |
1007 |
Mental Health Services:
Expansion & Funding, 1% Tax on $1 Million+ Incomes |
INITIATIVES PENDING
WITH ATTORNEY GENERAL |
AG Ref. # |
Due Date to SOS |
Subject |
SA03RF0002 |
3/3/04 |
"Workers' Compensation
Reform & Accountability Act" (Joel Fox) |
SA03RF0006 |
3/18/04 |
"California Home
Rule Amendment of 2004" |
SA03RF0011 |
4/5/04 |
"Local Government
Property Tax Protection Act" |
SA03RF0012 |
4/7/04 |
"California Scholarship
Opportunity Act" |
SA03RF0013 |
4/16/04 |
"Child's Day" |
SA03RF0014 |
4/16/04 |
"The Thomas Lomax
Taxpayer's Protection Act" |
SA03RF0015 |
4/21/04 |
"Humane Economic
Liberty Program for California" |
Conclusion
When taken together these various trends
portent a favorable environment wherein California Republicans can push
their policy agenda.
Click
here to visit the Intranet's SIS website for
a complete listing of past flashpoint.
Assembly Republican Caucus Strategic
Information Services © 2001 All rights reserved
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